Source of Evaluations Reformulated and Analyzed

Webster [8] has published a theory of the source of evaluations and expectations for performance (which we will henceforth refer to as the source theory), along with results of experiments intended to test derivations from the theory. The empirical results were interpreted as being in accord with the derivations, and thus, as supportive of the theory. Study of the theory and the derivations indicates there are logical problems with the assumptions, and that as a result, the derivations are not logical consequences of the assumptions. Therefore, the results of the experiments are indeterminate with respect to the theory Webster presented. We begin the analysis with a description of the substantive ideas of the source theory, along with the original statement of the theory. Next, we present a simple formalization of the theory, using ideas from probability theory to restate the propositions. The source theory is strengthened, qualitative inequalities on probabilities of being influenced are replaced by expressions with estimatible parameters.